Ukraine War: 1.6 bn people plunged into food crisis

Some 1.6 billion people or 20 percent of the world’s 8.0 billion population are severely impacted by the fallouts of the ongoing war ignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 Out of the number, about 1.2 billion people around the globe currently are under the triple whammy of adversity: food, energy, and financing crunch arising from disruptions caused by the war involving two global food factors and one energy giant.

A United Nations report stated that the situation would likely worsen if the three interconnected problems for food shortage, energy poverty and financing crunch facing the world are not immediately tackled before they could escalate. 

The reports said the impacts of the war in Ukraine are increasing the suffering of millions of people by escalating food and energy prices and worsening a financial crisis, coming on top of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change.

Russia and Ukraine are world food powerhouses that pump out large volumes of grain exports from large commercial farms; but the war, the associated risks to trade logistics and global sanctions raining down on Russia have all caused great disruption in the flow of three critical needs to significant proportions of the world population.

 According to estimates by the Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG) 1.6 billion people in 94 countries impacted by at least factor arising from the Ukraine war another 1.2 billion are overwhelmed by a full impact of acute food shortage, energy supply crisis and transaction financing difficulties.

The report pointed out that the Ukraine war would push the number of people living with food insecurity to 323 million. It noted that the number of severely food insecure people doubled from 135 million before the pandemic to 276 million over just two years.

It added that the ripple effect of the war could push the number of people with food insecurity to 323 million, adding that increase in hunger since the start of the war could be higher and more widespread, according to the report.

The largest number of vicarious victims of the crises is hosted in the developing and poor countries which require urgent interventions to arrest the rising impact of the prevailing global inflationary jumps arising from disruptions caused by the war.

The GCRG said the war “has exacerbated a global cost-of-living crisis unseen in at least a generation” and it is underming U.N. aspirations to end extreme poverty around the globe and achieve 16 other goals for a better world by 2030.

The group, appointed by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to assess the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, also said 60% of workers have lower real incomes today than before the pandemic and 60% of the poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it.

Guterres, who chairs the group, said at a news conference that “the war’s impact on food security, energy and finance is systemic, severe and speeding up.”

He said the war, along with other crises, “is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake.”

“Vulnerable people and vulnerable countries are already being hit hard, but make no mistake: No country or community will be left untouched by this cost-of-living crisis,” the U.N. chief warned.

Food prices are near record highs and fertilizer prices have doubled, Guterres said.

“Without fertilizers, shortages will spread from corn and wheat to all staple crops, including rice, with a devastating impact on billions of people in Asia and South America, too,” he said.

“This year’s food crisis is about lack of access,” he added. “Next year’s could be about lack of food.”

According to the report, about 180 million people in 41 of 53 countries where data was available are forecast to be facing a food crisis or worse conditions this year and 19 million more people are expected to face “chronic undernourishment globally in 2023.”

In addition, the report said, record-high energy prices are triggering fuel shortages and blackouts in all parts of the world, especially in Africa.

Guterres said many developing countries are facing a continuing financial squeeze on top of the risk of debt default and economic collapse because of the COVID-19 pandemic and unequal recovery from it and the climate crisis.

Secretary-General of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development who is a co-facilitator of the Global Crisis Response Group, Rebeca Grynspan, said food, energy and finance -are interconnected and all three must be tackled to solve the global crisis.

According to the report, one of every two countries in sub-Saharan Africa remains significantly vulnerable and are exposed to all three dimensions of the crisis. The Latin American and Caribbean region is the second-largest group facing the cost-of-living crisis, with nearly 20 countries deeply affected, it said.

Grynspan warned of social unrest and political instability “as a result of the weakened ability of countries and families to cope with yet another global crisis, on top of COVID-19 and the climate crisis.”

She said that “there is no solution to the cost-of-living crisis without a solution to the finance crisis.”

Grynspan urged international financial institutions — especially the boards of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund —- to increase rapid disbursements to bolster the financial resources of countries in need.

She urged the G20 comprising the world’s 20 leading economies to reinstate the suspension of debt repayments for poor countries and push back debt maturities by two to five years.

The report calls for stabilizing record-high food and fuel prices, implementing social safety nets, and increasing financial support to developing countries.

Guterres declared that government of countries of the world must take responsibility in saving the lives and livelihoods of their subjects, saying that the war in Ukraine has altered the global reality of life.

“For those on the ground, every day brings new bloodshed and suffering. And for people around the world, the war is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake.”

The situation emerging from the Ukraine war, he said, has compounded existing stress coming from extreme weather conditions associated with climate emergency, health and social crises inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and widening socio-economic inequalities in the post-pandemic world.

The report calls for stabilizing record-high food and fuel prices, implementing social safety nets, and increasing financial support to developing countries.

Rebeca Grynspan, who presented the report, warned against inaction. She said the cost-of-living crisis could spark a “cycle of social unrest leading to political instability.”

Some 60% of workers worldwide have already lower real incomes than before the pandemic, meaning families are having to choose whether to skip meals, keep children in school, or pay medical bills, for example.

“The current food crisis may rapidly turn into a food catastrophe of global proportions in 2023,” said Ms. Grynspan.

Higher energy costs and trade restrictions on the fertilizer supply from the Black Sea region have caused fertilizer prices to rise even faster than food prices. 

She said if the war continues, and grain and fertilizer high prices persist into the next planting season, shortages of other basic foods such as rice will occur, affecting billions more worldwide.

The global financial system must rise above its shortcomings and use all the instruments at its disposal, with flexibility and understanding, to provide support to vulnerable countries and people.

The report makes clear that the war’s impact on food security, energy and finance is systemic, severe, and speeding up, Guterres said.

Although ending the deadly and devastating conflict is the only way to stop the “gathering storm”, the UN chief called for immediate action on two fronts: stabilizing global food and energy markets and supporting poorer countries in the crisis.

He said Ms. Grynspan and the UN’s humanitarian chief, Martin Griffiths, would coordinate two task forces on finding a “package deal” that would allow for Ukrainian-produced food to be safely and securely exported through the Black Sea, while Russian food and fertilizers would have unimpeded access to global markets.

The top officials have already begun working closely with parties in the two countries, and in Turkey, the European Union, and the United States, though the Secretary-General refrained from further comment to avoid jeopardizing the chances for success.

“Ukraine’s food production, and the food and fertilizer produced by Russia, must be brought back into world markets – despite the war,” he said.

Stressing that there is no solution to the global crisis without also solving the economic crisis in the developing world, the UN chief called for greater resources to help the world’s poorest countries and communities at this time.

“Governments must be able to borrow the money they need to keep their economies afloat and their people thriving,” he said.

“The global financial system must rise above its shortcomings and use all the instruments at its disposal, with flexibility and understanding, to provide support to vulnerable countries and people.”