Bloomberg Africa poll names Obi as favourite to win 2023 presidential election

Barely days after the NOI Poll returned the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) as favourite to win the 2023 elections in the country, another independent survey conducted by Bloomberg Africa has favoured the former Anambra State Governor to emerge winner of the political exercise in Nigeria.

Outcome of the poll conducted by Bloomberg Africa revealed that Obi emerged favourite to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in office.

The outcome of the poll was published, Wednesday September 28, as official campaigns for the 2023 election kicked off across the country.

The survey was conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp. The results of the new poll showed that a clear majority of respondents said they intend to vote for Peter Obi in 2023.

‘’Of the 92% of participants who said they’ve decided how to vote, 72% named Obi as their first choice. Of those who are still unsure, 45% said the 61-year-old is their preferred candidate,’’ the medium stated.

In arriving at its conclusion, Premise Data Corp, headquartered in San Francisco, surveyed 3,973 Nigerians from September 5-20. Further, the report stated that respondents to the app-based poll were selected from quotas developed by age; gender and location across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. Results were then weighted against the original quotas to ensure national representation.

Peter Obi did not only secure the majority of the poll results. He gained a landslide victory over the two other frontline contenders, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar.

‘’The candidates of the two parties that have ruled Nigeria since the restoration of democracy in 1999 fared less well. Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress garnered 16% of decided voters and 23% of those yet to make up their minds. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party tallied 9% and 17% respectively.

‘’A former two-term governor of the southeastern Anambra state, Obi is running on the ticket of the Labour Party, which won a single seat in the Senate and House of Representatives in the last election in 2019. The APC and PDP dominate both chambers of parliament.

‘’In a relatively short time, Obi has built up an enthusiastic base known as “Obidients” — initially online, but increasingly in the streets — who aim to cause an upset on Feb. 25. Still, the Labour Party has a much smaller nationwide presence than the two rival parties, which are experienced at turning out voters across the vast West African country. Obi’s supporters will need to rapidly scale up their organizational infrastructure if they’re to capitalize on the campaign’s momentum.

‘’Obi originally sought the PDP’s nomination before withdrawing from a party election that Abubakar, a former vice president and perennial presidential candidate, won in May. Tinubu, who used to govern the commercial hub of Lagos and is the most influential politician in southwestern Nigeria, triumphed by a landslide in the APC’s primaries the following month.’’

The Bloomberg Africa poll also reveals that the former Anambra governor has momentum on his side, even as he enjoys the confidence of the majority of surveyed respondents in turning things around.

“The five-month race to the general elections gets underway as Nigerians contend with soaring inflation; a plunging currency and pervasive insecurity. Production of the economy’s historical mainstay — crude oil — has also slumped to multi-decade lows; while the Buhari administration’s debt service bill in the first quarter of the year exceeded the revenue it was able to earn.

”Three-quarters of respondents said that their country is heading in the “wrong direction.” A combined 88% listed the economy and jobs, corruption, and security — three pillars of the campaign that brought Buhari to power in 2015 — as the most important issues facing their communities.

“More than 65% named Obi as the candidate best able to improve the economy; tackle corruption and reduce insecurity. Tinubu ranked second on each measure, ahead of Abubakar.

‘’Obi also came out in front in two other opinion polls published since Sept. 15.

”Despite the general disenchantment about Nigeria’s trajectory; most respondents said that they trust the election to be run fairly and think their vote will make a difference; even if almost half expect the polls to be marred by violence,” the report concluded.

It would also be recalled that penultimate Thursday, a poll published by ANAP Foundation produced Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), as predicted winner of the upcoming 2023 elections.

ANAP Foundation is a non-profit organization committed to promoting good governance, founded by Atedo Peterside, the founder of Stanbic IBTC.

Peterside who gave a detailed analysis of the poll, during an Arise News interview, said Obi is the favourite to win the elections based on the results contained in the poll.

He further asserted that Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as well as, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party are tied in second place, while Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party is a distant fourth.

“In every nation and election season, there are always polls and there might be surprises…The interesting thing about this poll is that Peter Obi is in the lead and favourite to win the 2023 elections.

“There is always an outsider in every election…

”Rabiu Kwankwaso fits the profile with quite a substantial number of percentile. This poll is unique because the election is gearing up to be a very closely-contested three-horse race…No candidate is in the clear lead in all the regions.

“Furthermore, Obi’s votes cut across all demographics and not just the youth and the issues for most of the respondents are security and economy,” Peterside noted.

Results of the survey conducted by NOI Polls had placed Peter Obi ahead of APC’s Tinubu.

The poll results showed a significant lead for Obi; with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today.

Also, 13% each proposed to vote for APC’s Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who were both tied in second place.

Kwankwaso of the NNPP was a distant fourth; with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.

The foregoing was disclosed in a statement by ANAP Foundation which announced the results of the poll.

“We are unperturbed by these dubious and unreliable statistics…Our research shows that NOI Polls have been off the mark at critical election periods in recent times.”

It noted for example that preparatory to the March 2015 presidential elections; NOI published in October 2014 the results of a “Viability Poll”. The poll used the concepts of Familiarity and Net Favourability Position to survey.

“In the results, NOI claimed that President Goodluck Jonathan has the best overall familiarity rating at 99% and Net Favourability Probability of ±25.

“By contrast, NOI dismissed the then All Progressives Congress candidate; Muhammadu Buhari as a ‘borderline candidate’ who needed ‘huge public relations’ to shore up his performance.

“But when the Nigerian people went to the polls, who won? The APC candidate and now President, Muhammadu Buhari.

“This is not the only instance when the NOI has turned its political bias in an election period to fraudulent statistics,” the council stated.