Europe solidifies decision to ban new combustion cars by 2035

The threat to sustainable oil demand is increasing in Europe where the regional economic bloc has decided in concrete terms to end use of petrol for vehicular transportation in the next 13 years in line with already running emission reduction targets.

The Oracle Today reports that members of the European Parliament and the European Council reached provisional agreement Friday to ban emissions from emissions from new cars and vans by 2035.

The decision which is supported by the rising migration of new vehicle brands and models from conventional internal combustion engines (ICEs) to electric vehicles (EVs) host major demand destruction to petroleum commodity in the international energy market where several other non fossil energy options are also competing for demand.

According to the EU decision making bodies, car sold in countries hosted in the economic and diplomatic bloc after 2035 will have to have zero CO2 emissions, implying that no new vans or cars with ICEs are to be sold in the European Union from 2035.

The decision consolidates the leading energy transition movement in Europe where countries are developing means of energy independence from the oil market where developed and industrialized economies pour billions of dollars into the waiting hands of petroleum producers whose economies are mostly resource dependent.

Whereas climate concerns have been advanced as the major drivers in Europe’s advancement in energy transition, economic factors and concerns of energy security raised by the Russia’s breach of supply agreements over Ukraine war form additional incentives driving Europe out of petroleum reliance.

The Czech Republic, which currently holds the EU presidency said, negotiators from the member states, the European Parliament and the European Commission agreed that carmakers must achieve a 100% cut in CO2 emissions by 2035.

It would effectively prohibit the sale of new cars and vans powered by petrol or diesel in the 27-nation bloc.

 The agreement requires a 55% cut in emissions by 2030, much higher than the existing target of a 37.5% reduction by then.

“We have just finished the negotiations on CO2 levels for cars,” tweeted French MEP Pascal Canfin, who heads the European parliament’s environment commission.

“Historic EU decision for the climate which definitively confirms the target of 100 percent zero emission vehicles in 2035 with intermediary phases between 2025 and 2030,” stated in the tweet.

It is estimated that cars currently account for 12% of all carbon-dioxide emissions in the EU bloc, while transportation overall accounts for around a quarter.

“Zero-emission mobility will be a building block for slowing down climate change that can create severe disruptions in many sectors of our society, including environment, migration, food security and the economy,” Czech Environment Minister Anna Hubackova said.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected in its World Energy Outlook that acute demand fall has become imminent towards the eventual peak of all fossil fuels in the next decade.

The agency which provides advisory services to the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expressed belief that the prevailing global energy crisis could accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is the first time ever that the IEA’s World Energy Outlook scenario has included a peak or plateau for every fossil fuel.

Natural gas was originally expected to continue rising but is now expected to peak around 2030, with Russian fossil fuel exports never returning.

The agency stated that fossil fuel consumption is expected to peak or plateau within this decade, accelerated by the policy and trade flow shifts following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

For the first time ever, a World Energy Outlook scenario from the IEA based on the current government policies and settings has global demand for every fossil fuel showing a peak or plateau, the agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2022 published today.    

Even natural gas, which was previously expected to continue rising, could now join coal and oil in peaking around 2030, according to the IEA’s latest estimates.

“For the first time ever, a WEO scenario based on today’s prevailing policy settings – in this case, the Stated Policies Scenario – has global demand for every fossil fuel exhibiting a peak or plateau,” the international agency said.

In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario, coal use is set to fall back within the next few years, natural gas demand will reach a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand will level off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century.

“One of the effects of the current crisis is that the era of rapid growth in global gas demand draws to a close,” the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

“In Europe, climate policies accelerate the shift away from gas. New supply brings prices down by the mid-2020s, and LNG becomes even more important to gas security,” Birol added.

The recent rise in coal is small and only temporary, the IEA’s latest analysis shows. At the same time, renewables are expected to continue surging and eating into the share of coal and gas of the power mix.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 also predicts that “Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of our scenarios – to their 2021 levels,” Birol said. “Within 10 years, Russia’s share of internationally traded oil & gas is set to fall by half.”