Bandits, jihadist plunge Nigerian into global Emergency Watchlist

Sopuruchi Onwuka

Global concerns are rising over Nigeria’s increasing vulnerability to roaming jihadists and armed bandits pouring down from the Sahel region where they have helped wreck the economies of the Central African countries, leaving their governments with weak military and their populations in misery.

Core of the international worry is that Nigeria is fast becoming the funnel for the dreaded groups which wreaked havoc in Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger to invade strategic coastal nations in the Gulf of Guinea which form major routes and destination ports for international merchant navy.

The Oracle Today reports that the rapidly evolving kidnap industry across all sections the country, jihadist insurgents that claim large swathes of land in the northeastern and eastern middle belt of the country, as well as terror attacks by herders seeking grazing grounds in the southern parts of the country continue to take tolls on social order and economy of the country.

And the attacks, conflicts, killings and siege on local communities have begun unsettling communities, eroding economic assets, stalling productivity, causing hunger and death, and leading to displacements and vaulting humanitarian crises across the country.

Consequently, key international humanitarian organizations including the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Humanitarian Action have added Nigerian in the list of their Emergency Watchlist for 2023.

“Watchlist countries have experienced armed conflict for an average of 12 years: conflicts devastate the infrastructure, livelihoods and services upon which communities depend to withstand shocks,” the IRC stated in its 2023 outlook.

In drawing country-specific analysis on Nigerian security and humanitarian outlook in 2023, the IRC pointed at rising vigilantism in response to spreading banditry, Islamic insurgency spreading from the northeast of the country, worsening food crisis, religious and tribal political campaign themes, and political violence as the main factors proposing huge humanitarian forecast for the country.

According to the IRC, levels of violence will remain high in the northeast, driving the largest humanitarian crisis in the country as Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) lead other armed groups to carry out attacks in the region.

“They have struck both in the heart of government-held so-called “garrison towns” in the northeast and also, increasingly, near the capital Abuja. The violence has displaced more than 2.1 million people and reduced access to farmlands and livelihoods, adding to food insecurity—and yet the ability of humanitarian actors to respond is severely constrained, particularly in the areas of ISWAP/JAS control.

“Moreover, with Nigerian security forces focused elsewhere in 2023, violence and—thus needs—in the northeast may start to rise,” the group pointed out.

The IRC also noted that food insecurity is growing as severe flooding compounds the impacts of conflict, with the number of Nigerians facing crisis or worse (IPC 3+) levels of food insecurity reached 19.5 million in mid-2022, driven by both persistent insecurity and the impacts of climate change.

It stated that Nigeria saw its worst flooding since 2012 during the second half of 2022, affecting some 2.5 million people, including over 3,000 killed or injured and 1.3 million displaced. Extensive damage to farmland threatens to worsen food insecurity, the group added.

The northwest, the IRC noted, “is seeing a spiraling pattern of banditry and vigilantism driving up violence and leaving households increasingly vulnerable. Early 2022 saw a 45% increase in the number of armed group attacks on civilians, including kidnap for ransom and robberies.”

The group pointed at the weak capacity and low determination of the Nigerian security forces to respond to rising security challenges, “leading to both a rise in local communities forming vigilante groups that then become part of the spiraling insecurity.”

The IRC also noted that the military is being spread ever more thinly in response to rising internal policing needs.

“As a result, over 450,000 people had been displaced in the northwest at the start of 2022, and women and girls face particular threats to their safety amid the violence,” it stated.

In raising concerns over potential threat of political violence as the 2023 polls enter critical stages and intrigues begin to play, the IRC noted that “tensions in the run-up to the general election risk adding to the insecurity. At a minimum, Nigerian security forces will be further stretched as they respond to insecurity in multiple parts of the country, including criminal kidnappings.”

The organization warned in its analysis of the Nigerian predicament that protests and rallies are also likely to grow ahead of and during the election, noting that “previous elections have also been preceded by increased violence between farmers and herders in the Middle Belt states across central Nigeria as some candidates have sought to exploit communal tensions over land and other resources to mobilize support.

“More people died in farmer-herder violence in the first half of 2018 than in the northeast (Crisis Group), and there is a risk of similar violence in 2023 if candidates manipulate such issues again.”

According to Humanitarian Action,   some 8.3 million Nigerian form part of the 339.2 million global population of local people plunged into acute need by conflicts, disasters and climate change. The organization noted in its analysis that the Nigerian situation is an evolving case that holds immense potentials to worsen rapidly.

The Organization stated that it would require $51.5 billion to meet the immediate needs of about 230 million of the 340 million people affected by conflicts across the globe.

For Nigeria, Humanitarian Action stated, it would require some $1.2 billion to meet the immediate needs of people affected by insecurity and conflicts inflicted by Islamic jihadists in the Northeastern parts of the country and by foreign bandits that lay siege on larger Nigerian communities.

Just last Saturday, gunmen suspected to be Fulani herdsmen attacked a train station in Edo State and abducted several passengers, forcing security agencies in the state to activate search and rescue operations.

The Oracle Today gathered that the bandits who were said to have replayed the infamous Abuja-Kaduna train hijack took their victims as they were waiting to board the train at Igueben town.

Search and rescue efforts have since been launched and limited success has been recorded so far, according to authorities.

But rescue of kidnap victims remains a tough task for the security agencies. From Chibok to Dapchi and numerous other incidents across the country, the bandits have always had their way, including safe delivery of huge ransoms without the security agencies being able to confront them.

Saturday’s attack confirms fear in Southern Nigeria that the Fulani herdsmen who enjoy the protection of the ruling APC government have spread across the nation with immense firepower, pillaging villages and towns as well as draining resources through big ticket kidnappings.

Apart from Edo State, the bandits currently hold several communities and towns in Enugu, Abia and Imo States hostage, laying siege on them and draining their resources through routine kidnapping campaigns.

They currently make the Enugu-Port Harcourt expressway one of the most unsafe highways in the world, conducting daily kidnapping raids unchallenged even in the full glare of military personnel that mount road blocks every 500 meters on the road.

The seizure of the expressway by bandits currently disrupts flow of goods and services on the Northeast and Southeast trade route, wiping lifeline from businesses and families that depend on commercial activities along the expressway corridor.

The Oracle Today reports that the situation gets increasingly dire in the Southeastern parts of the country where angry protests against government’s push to resettle foreign gunmen in the area through attempts at creating grazing routes, cattle colonies and ruga settlements has morphed into prolonged bloodletting among political camps that take disparate positions on the evolving demographic reconfiguration.

While the political battle among locals ensues, incursions by bandits that run daily ransom kidnapping continue to expand. From Benue, Ebonyi, Enugu and Abia to Imo and Anambra states, the bandits launch regular attacks; preying on local people and using them as baits for huge cash extortions from relations.

Thus, from Boko Haram insurgency through Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), armed herdsmen, foreign bandits and unknown gunmen to sundry militant groups in the country; the local people continue to lose lives, homes and means of livelihood. And the situation according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) has continued to plunge the country into humanitarian crisis, with rising number of displaced people in urgent need of food, shelter and healthcare services.

In their global outlook of humanitarian cases, organizations and agencies like the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Humanitarian Action, the International Crisis Group (ICG) and the Europa Press all agree that Nigeria fits into the top list of global humanitarian cases to monitor in 2023.

The organizations classified Nigeria in the list of countries beset with vaulting violence and threats of war, where citizens are violently displaced by aggravated conflicts and attacks.

According to the ICG, whereas Nigeria is not officially declared to be in war it is recognized to be facing grisly insecurity situation. And the international community dreads that destabilization of Nigeria holds worrying security implication for the Gulf of Guinea; and concerns are high that Nigeria has formed a potential funnel for Sahel bandits to spread violence across nations in the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria has also proved to be the first country to be overrun by roaming Sahel bandits, thus making other West African countries vulnerable.

According to the IRC, over 8.2 million Nigerians in the conflict-ridden states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe currently need humanitarian assistance, especially regarding attacks by insurgent and associated sexual violence against women and school girls. Classic cases include the Chibok and Dapchi school abductions in which hundreds of school girls were herded into militant camps on forced marriage and conversion to the Islamic faith.

The IRC records that roughly 13,000 civilians have been killed, and thousands of women and children assaulted by militant Islamists since 2009.

“This year, 826 allegations of sexual abuse were presented in a report to the UN, but many believe that the number of cases is much higher. The northeast of Nigeria is seeing large levels of food insecurity, displacement, violence, and an outbreak of cholera,” the IRC stated in a report published at the end of December, 2022.

“More than 12 years of conflict and militant activity in northeast Nigeria has garnered global attention, but unrest and insecurity are spreading in other parts of the country too. Criminal activity and conflict in the northwest have sparked a growing humanitarian crisis, and separatist activity in the southeast has become increasingly violent. The various security crises in Nigeria are a manifestation of underlying tensions related to poverty, social marginalisation, and climate change in a country projected to double in population by 2050,” the organization stated.

In analyzing the country’s humanitarian risks, the IRC noted that “in the northeast, restrictions on humanitarian access will increase needs for the 1.0 million people living in inaccessible and conflict-affected areas; in the northwest, banditry and armed groups are creating a separate humanitarian crisis; in the southeast, political unrest is testing the government ahead of the 2023 election.”

The organization added that “the impacts of climate change are exacerbating local tensions as farmer-herder conflicts become more violent,” adding that disease outbreaks are a perennial issue due to poor sanitation and lack of clean water.

The IRC also noted the intrigues and tension associated with the February polls in Nigeria as hosting great concern for violence. It said that a series of conflicts spreading across the country in the run-up to general elections, attacks on civilians and levels of hunger have all continued to escalate and raise international security concern about the country.

“As Nigeria prepares for general elections in the first months of 2023, it is already beset by insecurity across several regions, including long-running conflict in the northeast, criminal activity by communal militia groups and bandits in the northwest and beyond—as well as a secessionist movement in the south.”

The organization noted that the February election could deepen political tensions and see local armed groups increasing their activities, potentially leading to greater communal conflict, particularly between farmers and herders.

Crises in the country, the IRC stated, leave 8.3 million people in humanitarian need and 19.5 million experiencing crisis or worse levels of food insecurity in mid-2022.

Again, “rising inflation and climate change—evidenced by widespread flooding—exacerbate an already dire humanitarian situation caused by insurgencies in the Northeast and Northwest regions of Nigeria,” said Nigerian representative of IRC, Mr Olukunbi Olarewaju.

Mr Olarewaju who is IRC’s Senior Economic Recovery and Development Manager in Nigeria explained that “the need for external support to salvage populations at risk of economic hardship, food insecurity and disease has become more critical than ever.”

Congruent figures advanced by all the groups with focus on humanitarian emergency in 2023 show that armed conflict, the climate crisis and economic turmoil are pushing a growing minority of the world’s population into ever deeper crisis.

“These countries are home to just 13% of the global population and account for just 1.6% of global GDP, but they represent 81% of the forcibly displaced, 80% of the people facing crisis or catastrophic levels of food insecurity and 90% of global humanitarian need,” the IRC stated.

In ranking countries according to their risks, Nigeria falls into the top 20 countries captured in the Emergency Watchlist along with other countries with falling stability ratio. Somalia, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan lead the 2023 Watchlist of fragile and crisis-affected communities worldwide.