Bayelsa 2023: Poll predicts Diri’s victory in 8 LGAs

An opinion poll conducted on the Nov 11 governorship election in Bayelsa, indicates that incumbent Gov. Douye Diri, will win the election in the eight Local Government Areas of Bayelsa.

The opinion poll was conducted by a team of six researchers and 50 research assistants for 2 months covering the period of June and July, 2023.

The survey conducted across 211 communities randomly selected from the 24 State Constituencies administered questionnaires to 2,400 respondents who confirmed to have their Permanent Voter Cards and intend to cast their votes in the Nov. 11 election.

100 persons were selected in each of the constituencies for the survey of samples drawn from men, women and youths while 24 opinion leaders were also interviewed across the constituencies.

The poll was narrowed to the three major contenders in the election being the incumbent, Governor Diri of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the former Governor and immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Engr. Udengs Eradiri of the Labour Party.

The survey was based on antecedents of each candidate, the zoning arrangement, impact on people over time particularly in the rural communities, the popularity among the people, performance of political parties in the last general election and Bayelsa’s key stakeholders/leaders backing each of the candidate.

Results from data analysis of the field report indicates that Diri is expected to return the highest votes from his home Local Government Area, Kolokuma/Opokuma.

88 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for the incumbent, only 5 per cent of respondents said they will vote for Sylva of the APC, and 4 per cent of respondents to vote Eradiri while 3 per cent are undecided.

The next from Sagbama Local Government Area, home LGA of the immediate past governor and incumbent Senator representing Bayelsa West, Seriake Dickson, 77 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for Diri as against 10 per cent which indicated willingness to vote for Sylva of APC.

In Ekeremor Local Government Area, 72 per cent respondents said they will vote for Diri of PDP while 11 per cent will vote for Sylva.

The respondents said they will through the ballot reciprocate the kind gesture of the governor to him for the completion of the Sagbama-Ekeremor road where several communities can now be accessed by road instead of travelling by water.

The survey report indicated that Diri is expected to win massively even in LGAs believed to have opposed him in the 2019 guber election. 

The survey clearly puts the incumbent ahead in Nembe LGA with 70 per cent, Brass , 62 per cent), Ogbia 66 per cent, Southern Ijaw 63 per cent and the state capital, Yenagoa Local Government Area 70 per cent.

Some 36 per cent of APC members who responded to the questionnaire said they will vote for Douye Diri because of his peaceful disposition and for opening up several riverine communities with roads.

Sylva of APC is expected to have his highest votes of 33 per cent from his home Local Government Area of Brass followed by Yenagoa LGA where 26 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for him.

The poll did not give Eradiri of LP any chance as only 9 per cent of respondents in Ogbia LGA, being the highest figure, said they will vote him and followed by the 8 per cent respondents in Yenagoa LGA, despite being his home Local Government Area.

The 24 opinion leaders were also interviewed in each of the constituencies and their responses corroborated the survey report to the effect that the incumbent governor, remains the best choice for governorship at this time.

They hinged their opinion on the fact that Diri has performed significantly well in the different sectors covering security, sports, education, health, roads construction, youth and women empowerment, skills acquisition and better welfare for civil servants including the gradual payment of outstanding gratuities to retirees.

According to the poll, 15 of the opinion leaders particularly emphasised that the incumbent governor has become a symbol of peace in the state and has demonstrated genuine commitment as a bridge builder who has restored security across the state.

“Governor Diri is a likeable person. He has shown compassion and I see him a good man. That is the kind of leader we need now in Bayelsa State. He smiles from his inner heart.

“He does not care whether you are APC or PDP, he identifies with all. That’s a good quality for a great leader. Again, he is doing so much projects particularly the various road projects connecting our riverine communities. We are so happy with the Nembe-Brass road. We understand that the former President, Goodluck Jonathan and immediate past Governor Seriake Dickson are also supporting the current Governor for another term”, An opinion leader in Nembe Local Government Area said.

There were a few respondents still undecided on the candidate to vote among the three leading candidates.