Climate researchers demand 50% fossil energy output shut

Sopuruchi Onwuka

New findings by researchers suggest that world governments and institutions should immediately stop nearly 200 new petroleum development projects and divert over $300 billion industry budget towards accelerating energy transition from fossil.

The new study, coauthored by Greg Muttitt of the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Kelly Trout of Oil Change International, was published in the journal Environment Research Letters.

The researchers called for immediate halt to new petroleum and coal developments and deliberate cutting of existing production at mining sites by about 50 percent in order to align fossil energy production and consumption activities with the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The scientists derived projections from the dataset from over 25,000 oil and gas fields and coal mines. They determined that mining activities and consumption of fuel products from already developed petroleum and coal assets would lead to emission of 936 billion tons of CO² when fully exploited and burned. They also calculated that production and consumption of energy commodities from the assets would stretch beyond already set time frames for energy transition in Europe.

The researchers noted that whereas existing target is to cut greenhouse gas emission by 50 percent by 2030, the existing petroleum and coal production operations would sustain the prevailing rate of global warming for the next 25 years.

They blamed American, Asian, Middle East and European nations for high fossil production, consumption and emission rates. Half the emissions, according to the study, would come from coal;  a third from oil and a fifth from gas.

The authors found that almost 90 percent of developed reserves are located in just 20 countries, led by China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US; followed by Iran, India, Indonesia, Australia and Canada.

The researchers calculated that 40 percent of developed fossil fuels must stay in the ground to have a 50 percent chance of global temperature rise stopping at 1.5⁰ C.

Publication of the study comes at a time of rising concerns over supply disruptions that might follow European trade and diplomatic sanctions against Russian over invasion of Ukraine and triggering of refugee crisis in Europe. Banning of Russian oil and gas remains a critical dilemma for Europe which relies on the belligerent nation to fire the regional economy. And European governments are currently shopping alternative sources of energy should Russia suspend gas supply.

Thus, the prevailing strong demand for energy to sustain the global economy at s time of low global renewable energy capacity make it difficult for institutions and governments of industrialized nations to heed scientists’ warnings on climate change.

Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), HE Dr Mohammed Barkindo, says that the world’s economy would rely on petroleum energy into the foreseeable future, pointing out that the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix is projected to reach only 20 percent by 2050.

Dr Barkindo said that there is no available replacement for petroleum in the global energy demand, warning that accelerating energy transition without first building robust renewable energy capacity would lead to acute supply crisis.

The Oracle Today reports that immediate to short term demand outlook for oil and gas, the high cost and slow pace of renewable energy, and worsening impact of climate change pose an impasse to the global movement for energy transition. And scientists warn that climate change would get out of hand if the world presses on with new fossil energy development.

According to the new study which corroborates the results of earlier researches, the world’s atmospheric temperature is on course to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius ceiling set by international agreements to avoid climate catastrophe.

The authors determined that keeping to the target of 1.5 degrees centigrade would require shut in of about 50 percent of existing fossil fuel production sites across the world.

The recommendation by the new study is more drastic than the recommendation of the International Energy Agency (IEA) last year that all new fossil fuel development projects be called off to avoid the cataclysmic greenhouse gas effect.

The IEA keeps market intelligence for the group of industrialized countries in Europe which rely on the international markets to meet domestic energy demands. The IEA also drives energy policy direction for the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that comprises industrialized economies of Europe.

Both the OECD and the EU form significant bloc of the global energy market, pouring billions of dollars into the purse of petroleum exporting countries on whose oil and gas supplies the European economies thrive.

The prevailing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the coordinated Western indignation against the invader and support for Ukraine, as well as retaliatory threats of energy supply disruptions by Russia have all combined to rekindle the push for Europe’s energy independence from the petroleum market. Experts have advocated that accelerated transition from fossil energy would permanently address the vulnerability of European economies to the petroleum market.

Besides, extreme weather conditions manifesting in flooding, droughts and wildfires point at worsening climate warming and amplify the urgency of cutting carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption.

Thus, the economic considerations and climate change impacts spur the global movement for energy transition from fossil fuels. And international protocols on slowing global warming have also led to development of scientific measures to decelerate atmospheric warming. From development new carbon sinks, carbon capture and storage, as well as enhanced fuel combustibility, the petroleum industry has evolved technologies for decarbonization. 

However, the new research holds that decarbonization technologies would not stave off the heating impact of huge volumes of carbon dioxide or CO₂ expected to billow from some 195 new petroleum development projects planned in the industry. The authors said the technologies are currently untested at scale and would not be counted as reliable pushback to greenhouse gas emissions.

Data cited in the report show that the nearly 200 new petroleum development projects planned for execution in the next eight years would contribute proportionate 2.0 billion tons of CO₂  in emissions that drive global warming beyond the 1.5⁰ C target.

The report goes beyond call for halting new projects to also demanding that existing production be cut by about 50 percent.

Greg Muttitt said halting new extraction projects would be a necessary step “but still not enough to stay within our rapidly dwindling carbon budget.”

He said that “some existing fossil fuel licences and production will need to be revoked and phased out early. Governments need to start tackling head-on how to do this in a fair and equitable way, which will require overcoming opposition from fossil fuel interests.”

In pointing at the scramble by producers to pump more oil and gas in response to threat to Russian supply to Europe, Kelly Trout said: “Our study reinforces that building new fossil fuel infrastructure is not a viable response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. The world has already tapped too much oil and gas.”

The researchers called on governments to accelerate development of renewable energy and enforce consumption efficiency measures as alternatives to filling petroleum demand gaps.

The findings of the scientific study consolidate recommendations from earlier researches that call for diversions of investments from fossil energy development to greener renewable energy options that would lead to prevailing climate targets.

A 2021 study led by Daniel Welsby of the University College London assessed all known reserves and found 90 percent of coal and 60 percent of petroleum must remain unexploited.

Welsby said “the new study is a valuable contribution to our understanding of what fossil fuels are highly likely to be produced and the volume which needs to remain in the ground if global warming is to be limited.” But he noted the study did not fully account for methane, a potent greenhouse gas, or the oil and gas used for petrochemicals. The study did not estimate how much CO2 could be removed from the atmosphere by technology in future. “These technologies are unproven at scale,” said Muttitt. “There’s a lot of talk about them, but we believe it would be a mistake to predicate achieving climate goals on these being delivered at a very large scale. We just don’t know whether it will be possible in terms of financing or governance.”