Food inflation soars to 32.84% – NBS, as Kogi, Rivers, Kwara hardest hit

Nigeria’s food inflation has surged to a staggering 32.84 per cent, according to fresh data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for November 2023.

According to the NBS’s newly-released Consumer Price Index for November 2023 report unveiled, Friday, headline inflation raced to 28.20 per cent in November from the 27.33 per cent figure recorded in October, this year.

The food inflation rate in November was 8.72 percentage points higher than what was recorded in November 2022 (24.13 per cent).

The report showed that the rise in food prices was caused by increases in the prices of bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables and coffee, tea and cocoa.

“On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2023 was 2.42% this was 0.51% higher compared to the rate recorded in October 2023 (1.91%).

“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve-months ending November 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.09%, which was a 6.68% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2022 (20.41%).”

NBS disclosed in its report that the cost of food rose highest in Kogi, Kwara, and Rivers where food inflation in each state surged to 41.29 per cent, 40.72 per cent, and 40.22 per cent respectively, while the same was cheapest in Bauchi (26.14%), Borno (27.34%), and Jigawa (27.63%).

It would be recalled that last November, Nigeria’s inflation rate continued its climb to another record 18-year high. According to the country’s statistics body, headline inflation surged by 0.87% points in November to a new record high in almost two decades.

“In November 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 28.20 per cent relative to October 2023 headline inflation rate which was 27.33 per cent. Looking at the movement, the November 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.87 per cent points when compared to the October 2023 headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.73 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2022, which was 21.47 per cent. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in November 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., November 2022).”

Largely driven by the surge in the price of food, month-month headline inflation last month was 2.09 per cent, which was 0.35 percentage points higher than what was recorded in October (1.73 per cent), defeating a recent claim by the Central Bank of Nigeria that inflation is slowing down m-o-m.

Inflation was worse in Kogi (33.28%), Lagos (32.30%), Rivers (32.25%), which had higher rates than the national average and lowest in Borno (22.47%), Katsina (24.91%), and Plateau (25.53%).

Last month, the Federal Government disclosed that a total of 26.5 million Nigerians now face hunger amid shortage and struggles with high levels of food insecurity in 2024.

Making the disclosure, in Abuja, during the unveiling of the October 2023 Cadre Harmonisé analysis on food insecurity, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Ernest Umakhihe, added that approximately 9 million children are at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition or wasting.

According to him, out of these, an alarming 2.6 million children could face Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and require critical nutrition treatment.

The Cadre Harmonisé, an initiative focused on food and nutrition analysis, conducts studies biannually (in March and October) across 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). With the Government’s leadership and the United Nations (UN) system’s support, the latest projection for 2024 indicates a sharp rise from the 18.6 million people currently vulnerable to food insecurity from October to December 2023.

Several factors are driving this trend, including ongoing conflicts, climate change impacts, escalating inflation, and rising costs of both food and essential non-food commodities (in part due to the devaluation of the naira and the discontinuation of the fuel subsidy). Persistent violence in the north-eastern states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) hinders food availability and access.

Additionally, armed banditry and kidnappings in northwest and north-central states, including Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger, exacerbate the prevailing economic struggles.

Of the 18.6 million people who experience food insecurity today, 3.3 million live in the northeastern states of the BAY region. This number might rise to 26.5 million nationwide by the height of the 2024 lean season (and to 4.4 million in the BAY states) if immediate action is not taken.