Monetary parameters for Q3 2021: MPC policy should stimulate real sector—MAN

Monetary parameters for Q3 2021: MPC policy should stimulate real sector—MAN

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The Director General of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) , Mr.Segun Ajayi-Kadir , has advised  the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)  of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) billed to meet this week  to come up with a policy that will  stimulate the real sector in order to the accelerate the pace of  economic recovery.

Director-General of MAN Segun Ajayi-kadir

 The  MPC of CBN may be  meeting  on Monday and Tuesday (26th &27th)   to deliberate  on monetary parameters for Q3 of 2021 and what to do to avert the predicted reversal of economic recovery.

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Kadir , who was responding to question by journalists said  “intentional initiation of a production focused Monetary Policy with enormous capacity to ensure price stability, improve access to long term loan at manufacturing friendly rate and reduce the rising wave of unemployment that may hit 40% if something urgent is not done.

“What appears plausible in times like this is to reduce MPR to stimulate the flow of funds to the real sector or at the least, retain prevailing rate to guarantee certainty, stability and in a way, sustained productivity. In addition, the CRR and BLR could be retained at the prevailing rates.

“Cumulatively, these should  promote price stability, potentially ramp up production, possibly create more job opportunities and may not jeopardize the current flow of credit to the real sector, households and other ancillary firms.

“It is however expedient to state that all the above analysis are also highly dependent on the vagaries and turn-out of macroeconomic fundamentals as well as other economic developments, he said.

The implication of the aforementioned, a priori expectation  largely depends on the practical relationship between  MPR  and Commercial Bank Lending Rate.

If MPR is reduced or retained, lending rate will be reduced or stabilized and should any of these happen, the following are the  likely implication for the manufacturing sector: improved availability of credit at affordable cost to manufacturers; stability of rates to improve planning and projections horizon; increase in  new  manufacturing investment, expansion of products lines and sustenance of existing ones and increase in the operation of  Medium, Small and   Micro manufacturing businesses, particularly during this particularly difficult time.

Other implications  include increase in utilization of  existing capacity  and possible expansion; improved manufacturing employment; increase in patronage of locally manufactured products as  credits are extended to household; and high manufacturing activity which would lead to increased contribution to Real GDP by the sector

 According MAN DG , to avert the predicted economic recovery reversal that was  alluded to, the general expectation is that government will take steps to guarantee the continued operation  of the economy, step up enlightenment in on safety measures to manage the spread of COVID-19, avoid the temptation to lock down the economy, deepen the implementation of its recovery and sustainability plans and upscale support to the manufacturing sector to enable it continue to play its conventional role of wealth and employment generation.

 All things being equal, the manufacturing sector has the capacity to lead the pack of economic growth drivers if and only if: access to forex at official rates is greatly improved, there is unfettered synergy between fiscal and monetary policies, manufacturers are allowed to utilize earned forex for the procurement of raw materials, spares and machine that are not available locally without any form of restrictions  and there is effective supervision to minimise commercial banks components of the cost of loans.

 Others  are deliberate efforts on the part of Government to translate the achievements made in ease of doing business to actual reduction in the cost of doing business and  a winding down of the aggressive drive for internally generated revenues  by the three tiers of government without minding the implications on business growth, sustainability and economic development.

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