Nigeria to earn $40bn of OPEC’s $842 bn export income in 2022
Sopuruchi Onwuka
Real income from crude oil exports for Nigeria’s fiscal funding will reach $37 billion by the end of 2022 but there are high chances that the country could muster significant $40 billion in the year, according to projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States.
However, the country would remain the shame of the group with meager per capita oil revenue of paltry $169.
Already, Africa’s biggest oil producer with highly impoverished population has earned $21 billion from crude oil exports since January, the EIA declared in its highly respected Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for August 2022.
The EIA which has compiled export data of key world oil exporting countries declared that members of the Organization of Petroleum Countries (OPEC) will in the year earn minimum income of $842 billion in 2022, with upside potential for $907 billion.
| Country | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Jan-July 2022 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Jan-Jul 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | $15 | $25 | $39 | $35 | $24 | $15 | $25 | $36 | $32 | $22 |
| Angola | $18 | $27 | $43 | $40 | $26 | $19 | $27 | $40 | $36 | $24 |
| Congo (Brazzaville) | $3 | $6 | $9 | $8 | $5 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $7 | $5 |
| Ecuador Guinea | $2 | $3 | $5 | $4 | $3 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $2 |
| Gabon | $2 | $4 | $6 | $5 | $4 | $2 | $4 | $6 | $5 | $4 |
| Iran | $17 | $39 | $62 | $57 | $37 | $17 | $39 | $58 | $51 | $34 |
| Iraq | $48 | $83 | $131 | $120 | $77 | $50 | $83 | $121 | $109 | $72 |
| Kuwait | $34 | $59 | $100 | $94 | $58 | $36 | $59 | $93 | $85 | $54 |
| Libya | $4 | $26 | $28 | $27 | $16 | $4 | $26 | $26 | $24 | $15 |
| Nigeria | $21 | $29 | $40 | $45 | $23 | $22 | $29 | $37 | $40 | $21 |
| Saudi Arabia | $106 | $184 | $304 | $266 | $184 | $111 | $184 | $282 | $240 | $171 |
| United Arab Emirates | $46 | $75 | $125 | $120 | $73 | $48 | $75 | $116 | $108 | $68 |
| Venezuela | $4 | $8 | $16 | $13 | $9 | $4 | $8 | $15 | $12 | $9 |
| OPEC total | $320 | $570 | $907 | $835 | $539 | $335 | $570 | $842 | $752 | $500 |
According to the EIA, members of OPEC will collectively earn $842 billion in revenues from oil exports in 2022, the most for the group since 2014 when adjusted for inflation.
The EIA stated that Nigeria could not meet its projected $23 billion in the first seven months of the year, posting $21 billion instead. The revenue underperformance for the period from January to July, 2022 means that Nigeria’s real revenue projection for the year was reduced to $37 billion.
The Oracle Today reports that Nigeria’s revenues as calculated by EIA posts a rising trend since 2020 when the country’s total revenue from crude oil exports beat projected $21 billion to reach $22 billion. The country’s oil fortunes rose to $29 billion in 2021.
Oil income projection of $40 billion for 2022 has already indicated default in the first half of the year, falling from nominal $23 billion to $21 billion. Thus, full year oil income projection has also fallen from nominal $40 billion to $37 billion.
For next year, the EIA calculates Nigeria’s nominal oil income continue on the rising trend to $45 billion, with a worst case scenario of $40 billion.
On the OPEC chart, Nigeria will rank seventh in oil revenue chart for 2022, ahead of Algeria which is projected to receive real income of $36 billion, Libya $26 billion, Venezuela $15 billion and Congo Brazzaville which will receive $8.0 billion oil revenue.
Other OPEC single digit oil earners are Gabon with projected oil revenue of $6.0 billion and Equatorial Guinea which will receive $4.0 billion.
Ahead of Nigeria, Angola will miss its nominal target of $43 billion to earn real oil income of $40 billion in the year. Iran will also miss nominal target of $62 billion to pocket real income of $58 billion. Kuwait will also miss its nominal target of $100 billion to go home with $93 billion.
The United Arab Emirates will fall from nominal projection of $125 billion to pocket real $116 billion in the year; and Iraq will go home with a total of $121 billion instead of nominal $131 billion.
And the biggest earner: Saudi Arabia with reach revenue of $282 billion instead of nominal $304 billion!
Altogether, OPEC will exchange $842 billion for its oil instead of nominal $907 billion projected by the EIA for 2022. The group has already received $500 billion from the market in the first seven months of the year, a drop from nominal $539 billion.
The calculations were derived from EIA’s forecast of both OPEC liquid fuels production and of crude oil prices in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). And with the new oil value in the market and rising production numbers, OPEC revenues are projected to be nearly 50% higher in 2022 than in 2021.
In 2021, OPEC’s export revenues increased by nearly 70%, after the group collectively had its lowest export revenues in 2020 since 2002.
The revenue increase this year would be due to both more production and higher crude oil prices, EIA stated.
“Looking ahead to 2023, we forecast that OPEC liquid fuels production will rise to 34.5 million barrels per day (b/d), which is 570,000 b/d more than the 34.0 million b/d we forecast for 2022. Despite the forecast rise in production, we forecast OPEC net revenues will fall in 2023 due to lower global crude oil prices. We expect global oil inventories (which have been building since second-quarter 2022) will continue to build through much of 2023. This additional supply will lower prices globally,” the agency stated.
It however pointed at uncertainties in the global energy landscape as factors that could shake its projections into 2023.
“Our forecast is subject to heightened uncertainty due to our uncertainty about how sanctions will affect Russia’s oil production; the global economic outlook; the pace of growth of global oil consumption.
“In addition, some OPEC producers continue to be uncertain about their future oil production because unplanned production outages could significantly affect their production and net export revenue. This uncertainty is particularly great in Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria. For more information on OPEC revenues, please visit our OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet.”
The Oracle Today reports that there is a sharp difference between the country figures and per capita oil income, with surprising pointers towards population numbers.
| Country | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Jan-Jul 2022 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Jan-Jul 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | $342 | $565 | $883 | $785 | $528 | $358 | $565 | $819 | $708 | $490 |
| Angola | $547 | $806 | $1,240 | $1,106 | $738 | $573 | $806 | $1,151 | $997 | $685 |
| Congo (Brazzaville) | $611 | $1,069 | $1,432 | $1,248 | $828 | $639 | $1,069 | $1,329 | $1,125 | $769 |
| Equatorial Guinea | $1,471 | $2,132 | $3,130 | $2,893 | $1,762 | $1,540 | $2,132 | $2,905 | $2,608 | $1,636 |
| Gabon | $1,085 | $1,887 | $2,878 | $2,275 | $1,799 | $1,136 | $1,887 | $2,671 | $2,051 | $1,670 |
| Iran | $198 | $465 | $730 | $664 | $431 | $207 | $465 | $678 | $599 | $400 |
| Iraq | $1,151 | $1,945 | $2,988 | $2,685 | $1,771 | $1,205 | $1,945 | $2,774 | $2,421 | $1,644 |
| Kuwait | $7,989 | $13,610 | $22,577 | $20,970 | $13,186 | $8,363 | $13,610 | $20,956 | $18,905 | $12,240 |
| Libya | $587 | $3,873 | $4,143 | $3,876 | $2,401 | $614 | $3,873 | $3,845 | $3,494 | $2,229 |
| Nigeria | $101 | $138 | $182 | $200 | $105 | $106 | $138 | $169 | $180 | $97 |
| Saudi Arabia | $3,063 | $5,221 | $8,508 | $7,343 | $5,149 | $3,207 | $5,221 | $7,897 | $6,619 | $4,780 |
| United Arab Emirates | $4,670 | $7,517 | $12,394 | $11,807 | $7,228 | $4,888 | $7,517 | $11,504 | $10,644 | $6,709 |
| Venezuela | $117 | $253 | $460 | $373 | $277 | $122 | $253 | $427 | $336 | $257 |
| OPEC total | $634 | $1,104 | $1,725 | $1,556 | $1,024 | $663 | $1,104 | $1,601 | $1,403 | $950 |
Nigeria has the lowest per capita oil income in the exporters’ group, posting meager $169 with Venezuela following from a distance with $427 per capita. Iran follows with $678, lower than Algeria which has $819.
Angola comes with per capita oil income of $1,151; Congo Brazzaville follows with $1,329; Gabon posts $2, 671; Iraq comes with $2,774; Equatorial Guinea enters with $2,905; and Libya posts $3,845.
Saudi Arabia, despite being the OPEC production and revenue leader, has per capita oil income of $7,897; the UAE powers in with $11,504; while Kuwait leads income distribution with $20,956 per capita in 2022.
In proportion with the shifts in projections, OPEC’s total real per capita in the first seven months of the year stands at $960 against nominal estimate of $1,024; leading to drop in full year real per capital income drop to $1,601 from nominal $1,725.
With meager $169, Nigeria forms a significant pull on the overall OPEC per capita revenue average.