Nigeria tops “Most Dangerous Countries in the World in 2023”
Sopuruchi Onwuka
Nigeria’s disrepute in the international investment stage has been further worsened by its ranking as the most dangerous country in the world for investors.
According to the gradation by Insider Monkey which provides high quality evidence based advisory to investors, Nigeria ranks relatively highly in the entire criteria which make the operating environment destructive to investments.
In putting Nigeria in top of the list published on Monday, Insider Monkey pointed at the country’s eighth position in global terrorism index; 19th position in global peace index; and 15th position in per capita homicide rate.
In narrowing the list to no go zones of the world, the investment journal pointed at rising rate of new violent agitators in the country and noted however some decline in recent years.
“Topping the list of the most dangerous countries in the world is Nigeria, even though it isn’t even in the top 5 rankings of any separate criterion, but ranks relatively highly in all of them. Boko Haram is one of the most notorious African terrorist groups which has carried out several attacks in Nigeria, while ISIS-WA is also active in the region.
“Additionally, major criminal operations have increased the risk of violent crimes including homicide even though there has been some decline in recent years,” the journal stated.
In qualifying Nigeria for world’s leading danger zone, the analysts supported their conclusion on related factors that lay basis for crime and crisis. These include situations of internal conflict, terroristic / militant movements which are wreaking havoc to safety and security, internal crime, and lack of check and balances.
Other factors that stoke security concerns in Nigeria include high poverty rate and low opportunities, they noted.
“In many of the most dangerous countries in the world, gangs, mafia, crime bosses and cartels exist because they can earn more money in a month than the average person can in a lifetime and are willing to shed blood and engage in violence for the promise of money.”
In citing the Global Peace Index Report 2023, the journal stated that “global peace has deteriorated in 13 out of the last 15 years, even though peace in more countries continues to improve as opposed to countries which have faced further deterioration, but the level of deterioration is higher than the level of improvement.”
The analysts based their major criterion for peaceful business environment on internal stability, explaining why a war torn country like Ukraine is not in the list while a stronger war opponent, Russia which has suffered on coup attempt, is in the list.
“Even then, Ukraine is not among the list of the most dangerous countries in the world, despite being the second-worst country in the Global Peace Index, though it is among the most dangerous countries in Europe,” the report stated.
While external wars contribute hugely to a country being considered as dangerous due to the major threat to life, civil wars can have an even bigger impact as the affect is contained entirely within the country’s borders, hence providing a greater threat to life. This is why we have several African countries which are either engaged in outright civil war or terroristic / militant movements which are wreaking havoc to safety and security in the world. Of course, internal crime is also another major contributor and crime is generally high in countries where there is a lack of check and balances but most importantly, where poverty is high and opportunities are low, leading to people engaging in crime to earn a living. In many of the most dangerous countries in the world, gangs, mafia, crime bosses and cartels exist because they can earn more money in a month than the average person can in a lifetime and are willing to shed blood and engage in violence for the promise of money.
The analysts drew direct relationship between foreign direct investment and peaceful environment, quoting a study by Auburn University which shows that “if a country with a population of 25 million people sees crime increase by 10%, the country will lose around $225 million from tourism, adjusted for inflation.”
The analysts also cited a study conducted by the EGADE Business School of Mexico which “discovered that for every 1% increase in the homicide rate, foreign investment fell by 0.28%, while robberies surprisingly had a bigger impact than homicide, resulting in foreign investment falling by 0.33%, all of which spells disaster for the most dangerous countries in 2023, as these countries need more investment and a fast-growing economy to be able to implement programs which will reduce violence.
“Additionally, people move from such countries, through both legal and illegal means, depriving the country of the talent it needs to go grow, which is why you will see a lot of commonalities in our list and the countries with the highest number of emigrants.”
In explaining the methodology used in its analysis, Insider Monkey isolated different stand alone scenarios as unrelated and separate considerations; explaining, for instance, that Global Peace Index, Global Terrorism Index, and average homicide rate of each country are not interdependent.
“This is why despite Ukraine being the second-worst country in the Global Peace Index, it is still extremely safe in terms of crime and terrorism, which is why it isn’t in the most dangerous countries in the world right now.
“It is also important to remember that often, there is little correlation between terrorism and homicides so both need to be considered to get a true picture of danger. This explains why some of the countries with the highest homicide rates in the world, most of which are located in South and Central America including Honduras, El Salvador and Venezuela, are not among the most dangerous countries in the world because of their high ranking in the Global Peace Index and low ranking in the Global Terrorism Index.
“Even the United States, considered to be the most advanced country in the world, barely missed out on our list, ranking 33rd based on our criteria and showcasing how improvements in safety are necessary in the country.”
The Oracle Today reports that the list of unsafe investment destinations is dominated by African countries currently plagued by political strife and civil wars.
Others are from South America, Middle East and Asia. Russia stands out in the list due to its war with Ukraine, internal strife, current pariah status in the global diplomatic community and international trade sanctions.
Apart from Nigeria, other African countries in the list of inclement investment destinations are South Africa named for hosting the highest global homicide rates in the world; Burkina Faso with its reputation for large scale terrorism deaths; Burundi noted for human right abuses and extrajudicial killings; South Sudan which is remembered for high homicide rates; Mozambique noted with significant 66 percent increase in terrorism deaths since 2022; and Kenya which is suffering from Al-Shabaab’s terrorist activities.
Others are 22. Togo which has one of the highest violence rates in the world; Ethiopia which currently struggles with fallouts of civil war in the Tigray region; Cameroon where government troops, Boko Haram and separatist groups are involved in a confusing brawl; Central African Republic with its high homicide rate; and Niger where putschists just toppled a civilian government.
There is also Chad where violence is reported to be commonplace for a long time, especially following President Déby’s death in uncertain circumstances in 2021. Also in the list are Somalia listed for unabated terrorism; Mali considered to be one of the worst countries for terrorism; and Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 100 armed groups actively operating to worsen mass abuses by government forces.
The analysts noted that the case of Nigeria stands out due to the high propensity that the prevailing high poverty rate in the country of over 200 million people of mostly youth age lays the stage for crime aggravation.
