Nigerians, World Statistics dismiss NBS’s 4.1% unemployment rate as ‘mockery’

Nigerians and the World of Statistics, a globally rated platform for verification of facts and figures, with over one million followers on its Twitter (now X) account have disagreed with the calculation of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which, Thursday, put Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023.

According to NBS, Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, from the 33.3 per cent recorded in its last report released as of the fourth quarter of 2020.

The last survey was conducted using the 13th ICLS, which was birthed and adopted in 1982 at the International Conference of Labour Statisticians.

The NBS also disclosed that the figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5.3 percent.

NBS had earlier announced that it would use a new methodology which aggregates the number of employed and unemployed persons in the country to get accurate data on labour force.

According to the Statistician General of the Federation, Mr. Adeyemi Adeniran, the NBS adopted new methods in recalculating the unemployment rate.

“Following guidelines adopted during the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) in Geneva in 2013, the aim of this re-evaluation was two-pronged.

“On one hand was to ensure that the methodology is in line with international best practice and locally relevant, and on the other hand, to ensure that a production process was robust enough to produce estimates on a sustainable basis (avoiding periodic gaps), and also, produce more labour market indicators and analysis that will inform government about the employment and job situation in Nigeria,” explained Adeniran.

Speaking during the launch of the new methodology in Abuja on Thursday, Mr. Adeniran said the new figure brings Nigeria’s Labour Survey in tandem with international standard, adding that the survey was conducted in collaboration with the World Bank and the International Labour Organisation and has been adopted by 26 countries in Africa.

Adeniran said the new methodology considered employed persons as those who engaged in at least one hour of work during the last seven days the survey was conducted.

He stressed that the new figure was not to give the new government a good face but to bring up the method used to conduct labour survey in the country.

The old method defined those that are in the labour force to be from 15-64 years old but the new adopted one views it to be 15 and above that are willing, available, and able when the survey is conducted.        

Also, those that would be categorized as unemployed would have worked at least one hour from the previous seven days the survey would be conducted which is a departure of the 20 hours the old method carried.

However, reacting to the NBS disclosure, Thursday, most Nigerians expressed doubts over the agency’s claims, as, according to them, going by the number of private companies and manufacturing giants closing down and exiting the country, with the attendant loss of jobs, the figure thrown up by the statistics bureau is a mockery, questionable, regardless of the methodology adopted in arriving at the rate.

According to a Lagos-based economist, Mr Ohi Adenoyi, the figure arrived at by the NBS does not tally with the reality on ground no matter the indices applied at arriving at it.

“The fact remains that most, and I mean a whole lot of Nigerians are unemployed and depend on handout and giveaways to make ends meet. Is that employment? I saw the recent palliative distribution in Lagos and the number and faces of Nigerians can only mean they are not gainfully employed; because they were they wouldn’t be there in the first place.

“With the hordes and droves of manufacturing plants shutting down monthly, those still surviving barely able to pay salaries. Arriving at 4.1 per cent does not capture the reality on ground.

“The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) will gladly give you data on the number of affiliates groups winding operations and downsizing workforce. And this applies to other business sectors in the country,” said Mr Adenoyi adding further that; ‘the metrics adopted by the NBS to arrive at the 4.1 per cent is too foreign, in my opinion.’

Similarly, the World of Statistics via its Twitter (now X) handle (@stats_feed) had posted a 33. 3 per cent figure as the unemployment rate for Nigeria, on Monday, August 21.

Nigeria also led the unemployment table on the global rates as published by the group, which many say takes its figures from the NBS as source.

According to opinions sampled by Oracle Today newspaper, via the X platform, Thursday, most Nigerians dismissed the NBS report as ‘propaganda,’ while others described it as mockery of unemployed people in the country.

Below is a compilation of comments posted by Nigerians over the NBS unemployment rate in Nigeria as done by Oracle Today newspaper:

Samuel Ajayi (@SamdGreat01) wrote:

Don’t mock unemployed Nigerian youths

Ajiji MIT (@ChiefAjiji) wrote:

Fact-checked: False ❌

It is impossible for unemployment rate to drop from 33% to 4.1% in one quarter especially where companies are shutting down and inflation is skyrocketing.

Yunus Abdul (@hospillo) wrote:

It actually is, all you need to do is redefine employed people as people that work for 1hr in a week from the previous 20hrs. You see how easy that is?

Asak (@Asak4U) wrote:

Our major problem in Nigeria in defining unemployment is a thinking that only those working with government or companies are the ones employed. All self-employed dudes are simply labelled as unemployed. I work in Europe and from what I see, whoever has something to  do (like content creators on YouTube and other social media handles ) regard themselves as employed (self-employed).

People that work part time in stores just to arrange things also have jobs.

In Nigeria however, someone who load goods in to trucks (he does that almost every day) will tell you that he doesn’t have a job

So the change in the statistics is not from job creation but from the redefinition of unemployment

Ugoo Ifedigbo (@hugorobinsons) wrote:

They are now cooking data

Dee (@Nithsmit) wrote:

Where did it drop?

Can you list the new companies that were established

You guys have started what you did with Buhari regime

Thank God for social media

Michael Emiabata (@MicgaelEmiabata) wrote:

God will….you for this fake statistics which is causing distress to the unemployed Nigerians. Who created the Jobs and where are the jobs /vacancies being advertised. I have six Nephews who are graduates and unemployed in Nigeria, they are being supported through my own earnings.

SOJ (@iamokama01) wrote:

Just like that it jumped from 33% to just 4.1% yet we have dozens of unemployed youths who are all over the place searching for nonexistent jobs. APC make una fear God, again some of this media houses are not to be trusted anymore. The hustle for X money has made them confirmed merchant’s of fake news thereby relegating @realFFK and @fkeyamo

Rinu Oduala (SavvyRinu) wrote:

From 33%? What kind of statistics is this? Una wan use propaganda finish us for this country

Ebube Ngodo (@kcnaija) wrote:

In which country? Sometimes I don’t know why they keep lying as if that will change the reality. If you open a database for unemployed people in Nigeria, more than 70% of all adult Nigerians will sign up.

Adamu Yahaya B (@Manthrow_INR) wrote:

Omo Propaganda go finish us.

Oseni Rufai (@ruffydfire) wrote:

Let’s continue the game of self deceit so unemployment is now 4.1%so all of Una get job for Nigeria Abi?