Nigeria’s inflation hits 31.70%, as trade deficit reaches N1.4trn

Nigeria’s inflation figures climbed to a stunning 31.70 per cent for February of 2024 topping the January 2024 rate by 1.80 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest published report, released, Friday.

The NBS made this known in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Month of January, 2024 report, while also disclosing that the January inflation figure was 29.90 percent.

This is also as Nigeria’s trade deficit dipped by as much as N1.414 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023 while the total trade value for the period stood at N26, 801.95 billion, according to the NBS in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for the same period under review, released, earlier Thursday.

According to the NBS, in its food prices data, inflation continues to drive costs of foods  and non-alcoholic beverages which accounts for a larger share of the index with 1.61 percent on Month-on-month while on year-on-year, it rates 16.42 percent.

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 9.79% points higher compared to the rate recorded in February 2023, which was 21.91%. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in the month of February 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., February 2023).

“Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in February 2024 was 3.12%, which was 0.48% higher than the rate recorded in January 2024 (2.64%). This means that in February 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is more than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2024.

“The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve-month ending February 2024 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 26.18%, showing a 6.31% increase compared to 19.87% recorded in February 2023.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Rural inflation rate in February 2024 was 3.07%, up by 0.50% points compared to January 2024 (2.57%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in February 2024 was 24.61%. This was 5.28% higher compared to the 19.33% recorded in February 2023,” the NBS report read.

Meanwhile, in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for the fourth quarter of 2023 ending December, the NBS said Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of N1.414 trillion while its total trade value for the period stood at N26, 801.95 billion.

A breakdown of the figure shows that the value of exports was N12, 693.62 billion, while imports amounted to N14, 108.33 billion, leading to a deficit of N1.414 trillion.

However, the country managed to avoid a deficit balance sheet on an annual basis, as total trade was N71, 880.01 billion, with imports amounting to N35, 917.62 billion, and exports recorded at N35, 962.39 billion.

The report stated that the commodities with the largest values imported during the period were ‘Tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, motorised, whet’ worth N5,061.25 billion or 35.87 percent, ‘Motor spirit, ordinary’ valued at N1,807.48 billion or 12.81 percent and ‘Gas oil valued at N1,196.26 billion or 8.48 percent.”

According to NBS, total exports in the quarter under review “increased by 22.68 percent when compared to the amount recorded in the third quarter of 2023 (N10, 346.60 billion) as well as by 99.60 percent compared to the corresponding quarter in 2022 (N6, 359.61 billion)”.

In the same vein, “total imports increased by 56.04 percent compared to the value recorded in the third quarter of 2023 (N9, 041.24 billion) and by 163.08 percent when compared to the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (N5, 362.83 billion)”.

The value of re-exports stood at N50.91 billion representing 0.40 percent of total exports.

Details analysis on re-exports reveals that “the top five re-export destinations were Malaysia, Cameroun, Italy, Ghana, and the Netherlands and the most re-exported commodity was ‘Vessels and other floating structures for breaking up with N13.67 billion”.

“This was followed by Mechanically propelled vessels for the transport of goods, gross tonnage 500 tonnes’ valued at N6.76 billion, ‘Other machinery of heading 84.30, not self-propelled’ amounting to N6.26 billion, Tugs and pusher craft valued at 4.54 billion, and ‘Artificial filament tow of cellulose acetate’ valued at N2.42 billion.”

According to the NBS report, the top five export destinations in Q4, 2023 were The Netherlands with N1,910.47 billion or 15.05 Percent, India with N1,101.47 billion or 8.68 percent, Spain with N1,030.09 billion or 8.11 percent, Canada with N907.64 billion or 7.15 percent, France with N799.77 billion or 6.30 percent of total exports.

Exports to the top five countries amounted to 45.29 percent of the total value of exports. The largest exported product in the fourth quarter of 2023 was ‘Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude’ valued at N10,310.70 billion representing 81.23 percent, this was followed by ‘Natural gas,’ with N1,015.84 billion accounting for 8.00 percent, and ‘Urea, whether or not in aqueous solution’ with N251.90 billion or 1.98 percent of total exports.

“In terms of Imports (CIF), the top five trading partners were Singapore with goods valued at N5,092.36 billion or 36.09 percent, China with N2,060.59 billion or 14.61 percent, Belgium with N1,140.97 billion or 8.09 percent, India with N908.59 billion or 6.44 percent and The United States of America with goods valued at N512.99 billion or 3.64 percent.”

Meanwhile, the report puts the value of total imports at N14,108.33 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing an increase of 56.04 percent compared with the value recorded in Q4, 2023 (N9,041.24billion) and by 163.08 percent compared to the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (N5,362.83 billion) this increase was largely due to the import of ‘Tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, motorised, whet’ worth N5,061.25 billion during the quarter under review.

Detailed analysis shows that the value of imports of agricultural goods in Q4, 2023 stood at N711.14 billion. This showed an increase of 10.48 percent and 59.87 percent when compared to the value recorded in Q3 of 2023 (N643.68 billion) and the corresponding quarter of 2022 (N444.82 billion) respectively.

The value of raw material imports stood at N966.80 billion in Q4, 2023. This value increased by 1.67 percent when compared to the value in Q3, 2023 (N950.93 billion) and by 72.87 percent when compared to the value recorded in Q4, 2022 (N599.25 billion) respectively.

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The value of solid minerals imports in the fourth quarter of 2023 stood at N58.92 billion. This value was 6.43 percent higher than the value recorded in Q3, 2023 (N55.36 billion) and 72.68 percent higher than the value recorded in Q4, 2022 (N34.12 billion).

The value of energy goods imports stood at N0.08 billion in Q4, 2023 while the value recorded in the third quarter of 2023 was N0.01 billion.

The value of imported manufactured goods in the quarter under review stood at N9,026.46 billion showing an increase of 128.12 percent and 268.76 percent when compared to the value recorded in Q3, 2023 (N3,956.81 billion) and the value recorded in Q4, 2022 (N2,447.76 billion) respectively. This increase was largely due to the import of ‘Tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, motorised, whet’ worth N5, 061.25 billion.

“The value of other oil products imports in Q3,2023 stood at N3,344.93 billion indicating a decrease of 2.61 percent and an increase of 78.22 percent from the value recorded in Q3, 2023 (N3,434.45 billion) and the corresponding quarter.”