World’s oil reserves remain at 1.5 trn barrels __Rystad

Sopuruchi Onwuka, with agency reports

Recoverable hydrocarbon liquids reserves that would continue to fire engines for transportation and industry remain at 1.5 trillion barrels, according to latest research published by Rystad Energy.

The figure is some 52 billion barrels lower than estimates published by the consultancy firm earlier in 2023, due mainly to annual production of about 30 billion barrels and changes in contingent resources in discoveries.

 “This total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more,” the company explained, adding that the estimate would only be realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition.

The company pointed out that the scenario indicates strong demand that is envisages to push prices above $100 per barrel.

“In this theoretical ‘high case’, total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day, then decline steeply to 85 million barrels per day in 2050,” it continued.

The company stated in the release that, in a more realistic outlook for oil production, total output would peak in 2030 at 108 million barrels per day and decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050, with oil prices staying around $50 per barrel in real terms.

“Under this scenario, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would become stranded due to unprofitable developments,” Rystad said.

“Such an aggressive energy transition scenario would theoretically limit global warming to 1.9 degrees, but given the current trajectory of oil demand, this path seems unlikely,” it added.

In the release, Rystad reported proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, “according to recognized standards”. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped, the release stated.

Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy Per Magnus Nysveen, said in the release, “the world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles”.

“Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” he added.

Rystad highlighted in the release that its estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities.

“Exploration has fallen as investors fear new discoveries will remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices,” Rystad said in the release.

Rystad pointed out in its release that Saudi Arabia was the country with the most recoverable oil at 247 billion barrels.

The U.S. ranked second with 156 billion barrels, Russia was third with 143 billion barrels, Canada was fourth with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq was fifth with 105 billion barrels, according to the release.

“The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling,” Rystad stated in the release.

“The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of four billion barrels thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation,” it added.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) 2024 statistical review of world energy, Saudi Arabia produced 9.60 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2023. The U.S. produced 12.92 million barrels per day, Russia produced 10.55 million barrels per day, Canada produced 4.93 million barrels per day, and Iraq produced 4.27 million barrels per day, the review showed.

The top crude oil and condensate producer last year was the U.S., followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Iraq, according to the review, which showed that total world crude oil and condensate output was 82.75 million barrels per day in 2023. That figure was 1.7 percent year on year, the review highlighted.

The EI’s review outlined that, in 2023, Saudi Arabia produced 11.38 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. produced 19.35 million barrels of oil per day, Russia produced 11.07 million barrels of oil per day, Canada produced 5.65 million barrels of oil per day, and Iraq produced 4.35 million barrels of oil per day.

EI’s review showed that the top oil producer last year was the U.S., followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran. Total global oil production in 2023 was 96.37 million barrels per day, according to the review, which revealed that this was up 2.2 percent year on year.

Recoverable oil reserve/resource figures in Rystad’s release include crude oil and lease condensate. The EI review’s crude oil and condensate figures include crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining. They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas.

The review’s oil production figures include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining) and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas).

They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas and liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain. They also exclude oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.