Crisis escalation feared in Africa after Wagner’s rift with Putin

Sopuruchi Onwuka

Several governments in the Sahel region of Africa will now after struggle with control of the Russian Wagner mercenaries after its leader has severed ties with Russian government and would now fight for its own funds.

The group is already accused to grabbing mineral resources in regions of Africa where juntas are struggling to contain rebellion from the people.  

The United States government officials estimate that Wagner has built strong ties with several African governments over the past decade, operating in at least eight African nations.

The Wagner Group has fought in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic and Mali, among other countries, and continues to have assets around the world.

Its split with the Kremlin could lead to destabilisation in countries including Mali and the Central African Republic, where Wagner has played an increasingly central role in internal conflicts.

 Both countries have sought military support from Russia, leading to a Wagner presence.

Malian political analyst Bassirou Doumbia said: “Wagner’s presence in Mali is sponsored by the Kremlin and if Wagner is at odds with the Kremlin, naturally Mali will suffer the consequences on the security front.”

In the Central African Republic hundreds of Russian operatives, including from Wagner, have been helping the government fight rebel insurgencies since 2018.

While working to kill Africans opposing their leaders, the Wagner mercenaries have been accused of atrocities in the areas including mass murder, gang rapes and sex orgies at hospital maternity wards where nurses, post partum mothers and pregnant women have been brazenly raped under the watch of government forces.

Most of the mercenaries in Africa are reported to have been battle hardened in the Middle east where they were accused of similar crimes but are not held accountable because they are not under a recognized command structure.

In Ukraine where they fought for Russia, they committed pogroms that are still being investigated by the United Nations agencies. Their latest rampage was the attempted coup against President Vladimir Putin of Russia which ended in a deal that exiled their leader to Belarus.

The head of the Wagner mercenary group had said early Sunday that his troops were reversing after they had advanced toward Moscow in a widely watched test of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 24-year grip on power.

“We will turn around our columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an audio statement Saturday.

Prigozhin said he was ending his insurrection because the moment arrived when Russian “blood might be shed.” After negotiations with Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin said he was halting the rebellion.

Earlier Saturday, Putin pledged “decisive actions” Saturday to halt what he described as a treasonous, armed rebellion by the Wagner group, whose insurrection had threatened to end Putin’s 24-year rule. Prigozhin had vowed to “go all the way” to Moscow to topple Russia’s military leadership.

The Kremlin later said Prigozhin would not be prosecuted and would leave Russia for Belarus under the deal brokered by Lukashenko, a Putin ally.

The Wagner group is a private military army that’s been fighting alongside Russia’s regular army in Ukraine, but tensions over how the war has been fought have been building for months.

On Friday, Prigozhin accused Moscow of launching a deadly military strike on his troops. Prigozhin claimed Saturday his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and reached Rostov-on-Don, home to Russia’s military headquarters for the southern region that oversees the fighting in Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers fire toward Russian position on the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Saturday, June 24, 2023.

Prigozhin claimed his forces had military facilities in the city under their control, including the air field. Videos posted on social media showed military vehicles, including tanks, on the streets, though the atmosphere appears relatively calm. Putin has appeared to acknowledge that Russia’s military has lost control of Rostov-on-Don and there are indications Wagner fighters have moved north to Voronezh, about 320 miles from Moscow.

In his address, which lasted about five minutes, Putin described the mutiny as “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” He vowed to punish those responsible. He did not mention Prigozhin by name. Russia’s leader said Prigozhin’s actions were a “criminal adventure” and a “grave crime.”

But by Saturday afternoon, the Kremlin said that Prigozhin would be allowed to live in Belarus and that soldiers that participated in the attempted coup would receive security guarantees and not face prosecution.

Concerns are high that the group might take severe measures to capture more mineral resources in Africa after severing ties with Putin who is believed to have been the key financier of the rogue gun totters.