Belarus offers Wagner chief asylum
The owner of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would now be exiled to Belarus after disembarking his campaign to topple President Vladimir Putin’s government following fallout of clashes with Russian troops while offering his services.
Yevgeny Prigozhin dropped his quest for regime change in Russia after mustering a coalition of anti-Putin forces during a declaration to topple the Kremlin over the war in Ukraine and other misgivings.
The war contractor said he was ending the campaign when it became obvious that toppling the government would entail a Russian bloodbath.
In reciprocation, the Russian government has offered to call off his arrest and trial on the condition that he would now relocate into exile in Belarus. And there are concerns that the government of Belarus might cut him from social influence and possibly wind down the global war campaigns sustained by the group.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said in a statement that a criminal case against Wagner Group leader Prigozhin will be dropped and he will “leave for Belarus.”
The announcement comes hours after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal with Prigozhin to end his attempted armed rebellion against the Russian government.
Prigozhin said on Saturday that he arrived within 200 kilometers of Moscow before he agreed to turn around and leave for the opposite direction in order to prevent a bloody conflict between his Russian paramilitary organization and the Russian army.
Peskov also said that Wagner soldiers who participated in the armed rebellion would receive “security guarantees” and not face prosecution.
Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was notorious for unbridled and profane challenges to authority even before the attempted rebellion that he mounted Saturday. The reported agreement for him to go into exile in Belarus would place him in a country where such behavior is even less acceptable than in his homeland.
Prigozhin on Sunday was uncharacteristically silent as his Wagner private army forces pulled back from Russian cities after a Kremlin announcement that he agreed to depart for Belarus; it remains unclear whether he’s actually there.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly negotiated the deal. But Prigozhin’s maverick ways are at odds with Lukashenko’s harsh repression of dissent and independent media. In power since 1994, the leader often called “Europe’s last dictator” launched a brutal crackdown on 2020 protests against his rule; hundreds were sentenced to lengthy prison terms, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.
Under Lukashenko, Belarus became almost umbilically tied to neighboring Russia, agreeing to form a still-in-progress “union state.” Although Belarus’ army is not known to have taken part in Russia’s war on Ukraine, the country allows Russia to base troops there that have fought in Ukraine and made a deal this year for deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Lukashenko is a vehement ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Prigozhin’s stance toward the Kremlin leader is murkier. Even as his fighters moved swiftly toward Moscow on Saturday, Prigozhin did not criticize Putin directly and instead claimed his aim was to oust the Russian defense establishment which he has denounced as corrupt and incompetent, complaining that it undermined his forces fighting in Ukraine.
The Belarus deal removes Prigozhin’s control of Wagner, but it’s unclear whether any of his fighters would follow him to Belarus, either out of a sense of loyalty or due to dismay with being absorbed into the Russian military as contract soldiers.
“These personnel could potentially sign contracts with the MoD on an individual basis, demobilize in Russia … (or) travel to Belarus in some capacity,” the Institute for the Study of War think-tank said in its report on the failed rebellion.
If in Belarus, there would be concerns about whether they could get access to the Russian battlefield nuclear weapons. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s security council, was worried about them gaining control of Russian weapons as the uprising roiled on Saturday.
“The world will be put on the brink of destruction,” if Wagnerites obtain nuclear weapons, Medvedev warned.
